Now That's Some Mercury

With the heating season, I got called in to fix a thermostat that would heat but only if it was either on or off --- it didn't work as a thermostat any more.  It was an old round themostat and it operated using a big ball of mercury.  Considering all the concern with millionths of a gram of ethylmercury (from thimerosal), this was a fair bit.

It got replaced with a programmable thermostat that doesn't use mercury, the cheapest one I could find.  Honeywell says that it can be installed in 15 minutes.  It took me an awful lot longer.  Amongst other things, they supply you with plastic shield and screws, but they don't tell you the size of drill you need --- now that is stupid.  I even called Honeywell as it wasn't clear where one of the wires went.  Eventually I learned that I should ignore that wire.  Anyhow, eventually I got all the wires hooked up and I set it to turn on the air conditioner.  Nothing happens.  Turn off and turn it back on.  Nothing happens.  Read the instructions and find in the smaller print that this is a precaution to prevent cycling the compressor on and off --- and it can take 5 minutes before the thermostat will turn it on.  After 5 minutes, it does work.

Tada--- considering how unhandy I am, I'm pleased with my work.  Thermostat should pay for itself very, very quickly with lower energy costs.

Vaccination Coverage - Immunization Schedules WHO

Which countries vaccinate which diseases?  What's their vaccination coverage.  I just discovered that the WHO (World Health Organization) has a nice database on this and other issues. 

  

Start here and play around.  

70% - The Silent Majority

The story of autistic children is sad.  Some people may be moved by what the parents have to say about their personal beliefs on vaccines causing autism. And some people may feel these beliefs are relevant to their decisions on having their children vaccinated.

Personally, I think that this is nonsense.  But let us say you disagree.

What little survey work has been done  shows only 29% of parents of autistic children blamed vaccines. The impression vaccination opponents give is that almost all parents believe what they do.  But we don't hear much from them.  

If you are a parent trying to decide whether to vaccinate your child, you have two choices. 

Jenny McCarthy is right: Mommy knows

If the personal experience and beliefs of the parents matter, then you should go with the 70% who don't blame vaccines.   Or the 80% who haven't changed their views on vaccination to be more wary of them. 

Mommy doesn't know  

That makes sense.  Because the opinions of 70% of parents aren't any better than the opinions of 30%.  So we should throw out what the parents believe and ask what the evidence shows.   And the answer is that the studies and the research from many disciplines and methodologies show that vaccines do not cause autism.  

So the next time you read a sad story from a vaccination opponent, remember that most of the sad stories don't have the parents blaming vaccination.

Ignorant Vaccination Opponents and Dunning-Kruger

A vaccination opponent who regularly comments at Huffington-Post wrote:

Some people come here with their minds made up and you can't teach them anything. They are called prejudiced, they've made up their minds before they've heard all the evidence. None of us has heard all the evidence. An attitude of humility promotes objectivity, unlike arrogance. (Eric Fromm's writing on this in his book, "The Art of Loving," is one of my favorite pieces."

To which I replied:

Arrogance isn't such a problem when it results from a great understanding of an issue. The problem, woefully demonstrated here is when arrogance is coupled with ignorance. It turns out that those who don't know much about a topic have a tendency to be overconfident about their skills and knowledge --- the Dunning-Kruger effect. And those most knowledgeable are less confident. 

A new study, the Price study , is a case control study that showed that when you compared the medical records of the cases (kids with autism) with matching kids without autism (the controls), there wasn't a difference in the amount of thimerosal they received.

Vaccination opponents had argued that there was a dose response to the amount of thimerosal infants received. The study showed that there wasn't.

Case control studies have been used for many years.  Understanding the concepts takes a bit of time.  What's sad is that those who haven't spent the time end up pontificating their ignorance, that the study is a fake and a fraud, demonstrating Dunning-Kruger at work.

It is vitally important to keep Dunning-Kruger in mind when comparing what vaccination advocates and opponents have to say.  The opponents are often ignorant, but come across as certain.  Vaccination advocates know the qualifications and come across as less certain. These are challenges for vaccination advocates as you can see from the nuanced (somewhat uncertain) discussions here and here.

Insensitive to Parents

I get accused of being insensitive to parents of kids with autism who blame vaccines.  Here's what one parent, fazergadget9, wrote at Huffington-Post . (with spelling corrections made)

My son Nathan was developing a little slower than his one year older big brother had at the same age, but he was a chatty, playful, gregarious little boy who we had earmarked as a future diplomat.We were both very wary of vaccination using multiple strain shots as we could not believe that an infants' partially developed immune system could cope with the load especially if they had other problems. BUT I caved in to peer, medical and pundit pressure at around 2 and a half years and allowed Nathan the MMR. Only with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight can we see the negative effects - he began a slow regression and started to lose a little each month. I allowed the DTP/h [? DTaP] at three and a half years and within three months my son nearly died and when he recovered he had lost ALL speech, ALL eye-contact, All cognitive skills, ALL play and ALL that was left was a clinging, screaming, head banging bundle of fear. 

I have had lab tests run on saliva, stools, urine blood and skin - my boy's immune system was SHOT, his GI tract was rotten with Candida and his liver overloaded with unchelated heavy metals. He was diagnosed as severely childhood autistic at FOUR years old and had been the delight of his play school previously. HE is recovering through massive dietary/biomedical/homeopathic/therapeutic intervention - - BUT VACCINATION NEARLY KILLED MY SON and left him severely disabled. There is a link Vaccine Autism

Human nature being what it is, this Mommy Knows Best argument is very effective. People listen carefully to anecdotes and they are easy to understand and very effective. Here's my reply (scroll down).

Confirmation Bias Forever - For the Bias Keeps Us Pure

I just saw Mike Adam's Vaccine Zombie video. The man's ideas are loonie tunes, but he's got a decent voice and the lyrics are catchy.   I can't begin to match him.  

But there was a comment at Huffington-Post where it seemed appropriate and so I posted the following.  The tune and adapted lyrics are from Solidarity Forever.

 Confirmation Bias Forever

When the anti-vaxxer's inspiration through Jenny's pictures shall run,

There can be no argument greater than Mommy knows

Coming in second is the cry of shill, shill, shill

For the bias keeps us pure

(chorus)

Confirmation Bias forever,

Confirmation bias forever,

Confirmation bias forever

For the bias keeps us pure

(chorus)

Understanding the Vaccine Wars.

Kwombles at Countering as written a great blog entry.  I knew some of the information, but she adds a lot more. I heartily recommend it. Line Up: How We Count the Divide in the Vaccine Wars, or We All Started on the Same Darn Road, so WTF Happened?

Shills and my Credentials

My comments at Huffington-Post are different from most, because I spend the time to research them first. They are almost always responses to vaccination opponent nonsense. They are more like blog entries or articles.  That's deliberate. I'm not the only one who does this, but it isn't that common at Huffington-Post.

And I comment an awful lot. And I'm currently obsessed with this issue, for a variety of personal reasons that have nothing to do with personal experience with vaccines or vaccine preventable diseases.  So there is nothing personal.

This gets under the skin of many vaccination opponents. So they love calling me a shill, in this case someone who gets paid to make comments at Huff-Po.  Calling someone a shill, isn't relevant to the truth or falseness of any claim or argument --- so it is always an ad hominem argument.  However, human nature tells us that people who are being paid to write something on behalf of those with vested interests may, I repeat, may, inadvertently or deliberately not provide a 100% accurate report.  So while it is an ad hominem argument, it is one that is fair to make.   Providing you have some evidence.

I'm not a shill.  Huff-Po comment policy doesn't allow ad hominem arguments. Yet they allow vaccination opponents to accuse they disagree with, of being shills.  There is one commenter, Time4TruthNow (Marsha), whose comments make this and other scurrilous claims with zero evidence most of what she writes  So recently I have stated that in doing so she is immoral.

Which is where we get to this exchange of comments with neutralground. First on being a shill and integrity.

Too Low - 1588 Reports of Miscarriage after H1N1 Vaccination

Three vaccination opponents put together a paper, including Gary S. Goldman, Ph.D.  It was first made public as an exhibit  in one of the truly stupid lawsuits filed by vaccination opponents against the FDA.  It was filed after the judge dismissed the case before trial as  additional information filed in support of a motion for reconsideration.

The exhibit starts with a lie. Under the heading Summary Statement  is:

Based on analysis of data from two different sources, the 2009-A-H1N1 inactivated-influenza vaccination program contributed to an estimate 1588 miscarriages and stillbirths among women 17 to 45 years of age.

There is nothing in the paper that provides any evidence that this is true.  Everyone would agree that the number of reports of adverse events after vaccination received in the passive (someone has to report) database, VAERS, isn't accurate. There have been varying estimates of how many reports should have been filed if everyone reported events. The Exhibit states:

CDC studies have reported that VAERS typically captures from 1% to 10% of the actual cases (typically the number of minor adverse reactions are reported at the lower percentage; while the reporting of more significant or major adverse events occurs at the higher percentage (page 3). 

No source is provided for this claim. But let us assume that it is correct. What can the Exhibit legitimately conclude?   Drum roll......using statistical methods, they determine that number of reports of miscarriage and stillbirth after 2009 H1N1 vaccination would have 1588 if all cases had been reported.  That's it.  Nothing More.

Does the number, 1588, and the method used provide any evidence of a negative correlation of vaccination with miscarriages and stillbirths (vaccination lessened the chances of having a miscarriage or stillbirth)?  No.  Does the paper provide any evidence of a positive correlation of vaccination with miscarriages and stillbirths? Does the paper provide any evidence that vaccination caused miscarriages and stillbirths?  No.

All it does is conclude there would have been 1588 reports if all women with miscarriages and stillbirths after 2009 H1N1 vaccination had reported them.  Hardly earthshaking. Except that the number is too low.

H3N2 and Trivalent Flu Vaccine 2010-2011

December 4, 2010 update/correction
Although it is early in the flu season, it looks like 2009 H1N1 will not be coming back for the 2010-2011 season in Canada and the US.  As of  week 47 November 27, 2010, here is what's been found.


The mix varies geographically.  The latest Canadian information is 90% influenza A and 10% B.  Of subtyped A, almost all is the new H3N2. 


The US information is half influenza A and half influenza B.  Subtyped A is almost all H3N2.


Seasonal Flu vaccines are trivalent. They are made by mixing together vaccines made from 3 types of flu strains.

The 2010-2011 trivalent vaccine uses the same strain of H1N1 virus (A/H1N1 California/7/2009–like virus) that was used for the the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.  Because protection with flu vaccine goes down very rapidly, you need to be vaccinated every year.  One concern is that the vaccine strain won't protect against the strains that are circulating.  That won't be true because as of May 20, 2010 (CDC Fluview)  only 6 of 1847 strains were different enough that tests showed the A/H1N1 California/7/2009–like vaccine was less effective.

There's also an influenza B strain, which is the same as last year.

The third strain is an H3N2 strain.  It isn't clear whether there will be many cases in 2010-2011.  Judging by past experience with pandemics, you would expect very few cases of H3N2 this season.  However, the CDC identified a number of cases in the summer.

They are very similar to the A/Perth/16/2009-like H3N2 strain in the 2010-2011 vaccine. So the vaccine will be very effective.  Here's the kicker: that's a very different strain.

Perth-like H3N2 viruses were first identified in early 2009, but have not yet circulated widely in the United States. Past influenza vaccines did not contain this strain, so vaccination with last year’s seasonal vaccine would not be expected to provide substantial protection against this H3N2 Perth-like strain.

And based on information up to 2007, years when the predominant strain was H3N2 had 2.7 more deaths than when the predominant strain was pre-2009 H1N1.

Great Information on Flu Vaccines

The CDC recently published Prevention and Control of Influenza with Vaccines Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), 2010. It is available in pdf, which I prefer, and html.

It is 62 pages of dense reading, most of it understandable by someone without a medical or scientific background (me).  If you have questions about just about any aspect of influenza or influenza vaccination, including their safety and effectiveness in various age groups, this is a great resource.

Vaccination opponents should carefully read it --- the better to know their enemy.

The CDC also has a recent powerpoint presentation at a September 2010 conference that discusses some of the same issues.

The End Of The Autism/Vaccine Debate?

The Poling Decision - It isn't about Autism

------------------------

The author of the CBS place, Sharyl Attkisson, should be reprimanded because of her continuing bias when it comes to issues surrounding vaccination and autism. Her opening statement is Incorrect: "The first court award in a vaccine-autism claim is a big one."



Fortunately, she provides the link that proves this isn't true. The Special Master wrote:

""Respondent has conceded that petitioners are entitled to compensation due to the significant aggravation of Child’s pre-existing mitochondrial disorder based on an MMR vaccine Table presumptive injury of encephalopathy, which eventually manifested as a chronic encephalopathy with features of autism spectrum disorder and a complex partial seizure disorder as a sequela."

http://www.uscfc.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/CAMPBELLSMITH.%20DOE77082710.pdf



Does her father think she got compensated because the government conceded that she had autism caused by MMR vaccination? No, at least not in 2008.



Because Dr. Poling had the opportunity to state that the settlement was a result of the government conceding that the MMR vaccine caused autism and failed to do so. He even avoided saying that this is his personal belief.

First read his letter to the editor of the NEJM

http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc086269 Paying attention to the top of the letter. Then look at Dr.Offit's article.http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp0802904
Read the Article at HuffingtonPost

Thimerosal and Testing Vaccines

For many vaccination opponents, thimerosal in vaccines is still an  important tool in their efforts to scare parents into not vaccinating their children according to the recommendations where they live.

That's true despite the vaccines routinely used in childhood vaccinations from 0 to 6 years of age having zero thimerosal in them in Canada and the US with two exceptions. One, some influenza vaccines. Two, Tripedia, a DaPT vaccine has a trace amount (75 times less than if used as a preservative) of thimerosal in it from the manufacturing process.

Then someone said that how do we know that this is true?  After all, only the vaccine makers are testing the vaccine for thimerosal.In other words, the vaccine being distributed might not match the chemical content according to the product insert and the label on the package.

That's ridiculous. Why?  Because there aren't a lot of companies that make vaccines and there aren't a huge number of different vaccine products being sold worldwide.  Testing the chemical content of vaccines, especially in amounts such as millionth of a gram isn't going to be difficult for a decent chemical lab to do.  So there are a huge number of places where someone who gets hold of a dose of a vaccine can test it.

Moreover, vaccines are treated very differently from prescription drugs when it comes to testing by the regulator that approved the vaccine.  In the US, the FDA can handle the vaccines all the way from testing each lot of each vaccine, to requiring paper work on the testing of each lot of vaccine, to requiring the paperwork being available on demand.
Canada takes a different approach. I know that 2009 H1N1 vaccine was held up from distribution until the Canadian government lab had done its own testing. It wasn't clear from the website whether Canada tested every lot of every vaccine, so I asked.

Here is the email response followed by my inquiry.